Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
