🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Profited $436K on Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the US operation. Changing Odds in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion rose in the period preceding former President Trump announced on the weekend that the president had been seized. One account, which registered on the site recently and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436K from a modest bet of $32.5K. It remains unclear. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement Trading information shows that traders assessed the probability of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. However the odds had climbed to 11% by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the early hours of Saturday, indicating a rapid movement in positions just before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on inside information," said an industry expert. A handful of other individuals also profited tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Elected officials are growing concerned. A bill introduced on the start of the week would prevent government employees from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. Market Background Forecasting platforms have grown significantly in recent years, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to politics. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. However it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Trading on insider information is a crime in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market space. An official representative for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."