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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still