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It was 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the source of the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough query to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have piled up.

As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – however right now the margins are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing United.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition had more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the force he resembled during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.

The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.