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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd